Forecasting Mass
Shootings

Weekly U.S. mass-shooting incidence predicted from 522 weeks of public data (2014–2023). Negative-binomial GLM, logistic classifiers, optional random-forest, evaluated against naive seasonal and lag-only baselines on a held-out 2-year window. Built end-to-end by an autonomous agent on commodity Linux.

MSF Forecast — Mass-Shooting Forecasting Project — A weekly-forecast model for U.S. mass-shooting incidents. Predicted from publicly observable pre-incident signals: prior-period incidents, NICS firearm-check volume, calendar effects, holiday & school-season flags. Operational since 2026-07-11.